We are almost done with 2021 and the incredibly chaotic housing market that came with it. It’s natural that we look forward and try to understand what next year will look like. Many home shoppers experienced the double-edge sword of 2021’s housing market. Witnessing how the housing market appreciated over the last twelve months fueled fears of another recession, understandably so.
The average Joe doesn’t spend days, weeks, or months on end to analyze the influencing factors. Even the best real estate market analysts can be wrong when the market is so unpredictable, and some even consider that forecasts aren’t as trustworthy now as they were a couple of years ago. By checking median home values for a city on Zillow, they no longer show the predictions or forecasts they would have two years ago. The information is more focused on what’s happening now and less on what should be expected.
We are currently dealing with a low inventory of homes, coupled with low-interest rates that have to satisfy a large number of home shoppers. That is one of the factors that influenced the record-breaking appreciation of home prices over the last year. Understanding all this information guides experts towards housing market predictions for 2022. The growth will not stop, but it will normalize. Simply put, home purchasing will be more approachable in 2022 for many home shoppers.
Housing Market Overview for 2022
Access to information comes with a certain level of responsibility. Not to quote the Spider-man movies but, seeing as information is power, “with great power comes great responsibility”. Based on information and facts from the depths of the industry, we can make some predictions. Real estate and mortgage experts are signaling the shape of 2022’s housing market, and we’re here to pass the information along.
Demand and Generational Shift
Throughout 2022 we can expect the housing market to continue its growth. Since working from home and health concerns are likely to continue, city dwellers will still consider relocating. Either because they want to get out of the big cities or want a more affordable cost of living. Areas of the country that are oversaturated by a demand that leads to incredibly high housing prices might experience a decline in demand. If people no longer need to live in New York City for their Manhattan office but can work remotely, they can move to the more affordable surrounding areas or states. Home size also plays its part as many homeowners need extra space for their home office. However, the most significant impact of high housing demand is the millennials. They are reaching prime first-time ownership age, and interests are low, making the market relatively affordable.
Space for Growth
Signs are showcasing a continued strength in the housing market. Still, given the already available signs of moderation in the market, with home purchases slowly decreasing and a decrease in market competitiveness, 2022 seems to head towards a market normalization. Looking at what Zillow did, we must understand that stopping their home purchases does not mean they see something in the market that others don’t. They are just focusing on their available inventory as house flipping isn’t as easy now as before the pandemic.
A cooling off for both demand and prices seems to be the trend that we’re already seeing. This will allow the inventory to catch up, which in turn will calm down price appreciation. The housing market predictions for 2022 are of a more normalized and balanced market that will make it easier for buyers to purchase homes.
Keep an Eye on Interest Rates
Currently, interests are historically low. While experts say that housing prices and gains should level out in the coming year, they suggest caution when it comes to interest rates. For now, the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates at a low level, but this is expected to change. When they change, we will see a decrease in purchasing power. However, it all depends on how fast the Fed will increase interest rates.
If your purchasing plans depend on the affordable interest rates we are currently experiencing, you should go forth with your search and not wait till 2022. Things will change, and while the logical trend would be a steady increase in interest rates so that the market doesn’t destabilize again, anything can happen until next year to throw us all a curveball. Unpredictability is a reality of today’s day and age. The last thing we want is to postpone home purchasing and be unable to afford one next year.
Will Home Prices Drop in 2022?
The year 2021 electrified the housing market prices. Month after month, the year-to-year appreciation rates were breaking record after record. From August 2020 to August 2021, real estate prices grew by over 16%, the most considerable annual growth in the last 45 years. July had over 14% in July, and now, in October, we’re dealing with a year-to-year increase of around 15.5%.
This light calming down of the market is more likely to continue, but prices won’t go down anytime soon. They will continue to grow at a steadier pace as the market normalizes. The slowing down of home price gains will take off some pressure from interested buyers, making it easier to purchase homes. However, don’t forget about the interest rates.
Normalizing Growth Rate
What’s happening in 2021 will continue in 2022. But we’re not referring to prices skyrocketing but slowing down their growth. Due to an inventory shortage and existing demand, they will continue to climb, but affordability is likely to moderate this growth. I think we can all agree that the appreciation rates of 2021 weren’t those of a normal market. That is a given. If we look back to pre-pandemic growth rates, from October 2017 to October 2018, there was a 5.4% growth rate. That was the average over the last decade, and that is what we can expect once the housing market normalizes. After that, the real estate market got hit by the effects of the pandemic.
Still, let’s look back to 2008, the worst year for the housing market in recent history. If we calculate an annual 4.5% growth rate since then over the 20-year arc that followed, we will reach the current market prices. If we were to take out the Great Recession from the real estate history books, we would end up more or less where we are now regarding prices. The bubble burst that shook the global economy in 2008 had a long-lasting impact on prices, holding them down for around a decade. Taking the values of 2006 and the values we are seeing now, we reach a 4.5% annual growth rate. This period is just leading to normalization in the housing market.
Demand will Keep Prices High
Yes. Prices started cooling off, and the same will happen in 2022 if nothing else rocks the market. Still, a cooling-off period does not mean a drop. The constant demand for housing won’t allow a drop to occur. Millennial demand, interest rates that won’t skyrocket, and an inventory shortage will maintain appreciation rates while normalizing them.
Those who continue to work remotely will still look at homes if they haven’t made the transition yet. This could lead to housing appreciations in smaller markets as people seek to move out of expensive cities. Bigger demand affects prices. Similarly, for some California housing market predictions for 2022, the insane appreciation rates will calm down, making it a more approachable destination in the future. However, do not start comparing California prices with Maine. Demand will remain big in highly sought-after destinations.
Building Sector Predictions for 2022
We already mentioned what Zillow is dealing with. To give more information, the company halted their home purchases through their “iBuyer” division. This scared many investors and analysts worried about trends that might come next. However, Zillow has a logical explanation for it. They buy, renovate, and sell properties directly to buyers through their program—basically, flipping houses. The constraints on supply chains affect this process as renovations are more difficult due to a lack of supplies. This is experienced throughout the market.
This tells us that the housing demand will still suffer from the short supply. On the other side of the coin, demand is starting to decline, giving inventory a breath of fresh air. This will provide the housing supply a chance to catch up. At the same time, experts predict that some investors might move away from 2021 rental market trends and sell their rental properties to gain profits from today’s resale market. Next year’s growing housing inventory will take off the pressure for buyers from the accelerated housing prices we’ve seen this year.
Still, do not expect housing inventory to overcome demand. There is a long way to go for the housing inventory to saturate the market. The housing shortage will reach a 50% shortage, but it may take as much as three years to get to normal levels again. Supply chains are still affected by COVID, the construction workforce is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels, and boomers won’t be selling yet as they have nothing to buy.
Buyers are wondering what they can expect from next year’s interest rates. Currently, at approximately 3%, rates are expected to climb. They have been at historically low levels for a good portion of 2021, but rates are likely to grow as the market continues to stabilize. Experts have different opinions, but they all agree that they won’t exceed 4.25% by late 2022. The average predicted growth for interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans is 3.6%. A drastic increase is unlikely to happen in today’s fiscal environment. But even if interest rates reach 4.25%, those are still at historically favorable levels for buyers.
Will the Housing Market Crash in 2022?
Note that we specify a boom that can be seen through the market, not a bubble because all the economic signs prove that it’s not a bubble. And only bubbles burst. Home shoppers should not expect prices to drop as they did in 2008 or at all. The trends are still towards appreciation, and chances for a real estate market crash are faint. Despite the heavy blow taken by the economy in the heat of the COVID pandemic, the recovery has been great. By the end of 2022, the job market is expected to recover 100% of the jobs lost due to the pandemic.
Now, for those fearing the 2008 scenario happening again, the factors that led to it back then don’t exist now. The only common element is skyrocketing prices. Back then, housing inventory was high, demand was low, high-interest rates, and bad lending practices based on bad credit. Now, we have a low inventory, high demand, low-interest rates, and strict lending practices based on high creditworthiness. To top that, the following years will have to deal with more Millennials, Gen Y, and Gen Z, so housing inventory will have to satisfy growing demand. As long as demand is high and housing inventory is struggling to keep up, a crash is unlikely.
To Buy or Not to Buy?
That is the question indeed. For all those wondering whether the current real estate market is safe for investments … a certain level of risk will always exist. That’s a given with any type of investment. However, personal circumstances are the only ones that matter in the end. Just take a look at your financial situation and make the best decision based on the 30/30/3 rule.
- Monthly mortgage payments should not exceed 30% of the household income;
- Choose a 30-year mortgage;
- Target a 3% fixed interest rate.
The most important factor that guides residential home buyers is life. Regardless of their age, social status, generation, or financial situation, those that need to buy a home will look into it while those that don’t need to relocate won’t. For the average real estate buyer, it doesn’t matter if the housing market is good or bad.
How do reputable real estate analysts relate to 2022 housing market predictions?
Other than Zillow mentioned above, other famous real estate associations intend to predict the real estate market in 2022. Redfin and their chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, analyzed the 2021 housing market, trying to foretell whether real estate prices would drop in 2022. Let’s see what his conclusions were.
Bright market predictions for 2022
According to him, low borrowing rates and a scarcity of supply drove up prices during previous years. In June 2021, approximately 1.38 million properties were listed for sale in the United States, signaling a 23-percent decline compared to last year's numbers.
The official report states that the persistent epidemic, particularly its substantial influence on the US economy and Americans’ brand new way of life, has rendered the housing market in 2021 anything but ordinary. The analyst then continues with the essential ingredients to the present and the 2022 housing market.
Home office, budget-friendly mortgage rates, and a limited quantity of building materials have been both past and present quintessential variables. Moreover, imbalance in people’s income enabling well-off American citizens to purchase vacation houses has contributed to a year to remember real estate-wise.
2021 heralded willingness to pay more for real estate
Homebuyers went so far as to pay a substantially more significant sum for properties. In addition, they were pretty zealous and often purchased earlier than intended. Most often, they searched outside their hometowns or turfs. In several instances, they did all of the above simultaneously.
For sure, many will remember this overwrought housing market trend. Did you know that virtually in every US city, real estate prices went up as of December 2021? No wonder Redfin analysts outlined a bright future as real estate predictions for 2022. Consequently, the housing market in 2022 will, by all means, be more settled from a financial perspective.
What does the NAR have to say on real estate predictions for 2022?
The National Association of Realtors compiled an all-around house buyer and seller profile. The results showed similarities with Redfin’s results. NAR specialists reported that approximately one-third of homebuyers in 2021 paid more than the listed price for their properties.
The proportion of first-time homebuyers grew to 34 percent last year, a considerable increase from 31% in 2020. In other words, this was the most incredible positive surge since 2017. Did we mention that the average age of first-time purchasers was thirty-three?
2021 real estate ran wild and won’t stop there
According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Group of Realtors, a trade association for real estate brokers, the housing market was performing well at the turn of the year. Also, he firmly believes that prices will stabilize based on various housing predictions in 2022.
“All markets are experiencing exceptional circumstances, and house sales reached their peak in 15 years,” Yun added. The housing sector’s remarkable performance won’t discontinue. Still, he doesn’t expect 2022, the Year of the Tiger, figures to exceed 2021’s success. (Source: The Washington Post)
Based on his real estate predictions, the housing market will not crash in 2022. Realtors all seem to agree that sales would surpass pre-pandemic figures this year. Simultaneously, they don’t eliminate the likelihood that they won’t reach pandemic heights. Shall we also experience new trends in property management?
The buzzword is inventory - creating new homes.
Agents and brokers based their estimates on the assumption that additional inventory will be available in the upcoming period. New house developments create an increased housing supply and will undeniably slow down the process characterized by multiple offers.
New buildings will also end the patience of “tormented” mortgage payers. Some homeowners will give up and decide to sell. A growing home inventory is a key factor in real estate predictions for 2022. Subsequently, the extreme multiple offer situation will begin to decrease. Still, according to specialists, property prices won’t stop growing, yet they will climb at a lesser rate.
Mr. Yun, when asked about his expert housing predictions for 2022, replied that one of the most significant elements, namely mortgage rates, would define the market this year. He envisions a 3.7 percent increase in mortgage rates for 2022, owing to continuously growing inflation. Climbing loan rates will trigger a particular interest for rental properties because fewer people will qualify for mortgages.
What are real estate predictions for property prices in 2022?
The National Association of Realtors polled more than twenty economic and housing professionals to share their estimates for the home-price rise and newly built houses.
According to the association, median property prices will grow by 5.7 percent in 2022.
Additionally, they anticipate new-home sales to increase to approximately 920,000 in 2022, a significant boom from 800,000 in 2018. Thirdly, they forecast the existing-home sales to fall to 5.9 million. For your information, the previous year's sales were above six million.
All seem to agree that affordability would turn gradually more difficult as loan rates and prices increase. Still, remote employment may broaden target regions house-hunters will search. Moreover, home offices help younger buyers discover their first houses sooner than they could otherwise."
Affordability and home price appreciation
As an essential supplement to real estate predictions for 2022, they expect price appreciation for existing properties to stabilize at 2.9 percent. However, affordability issues will keep prices from rising too drastically, maintaining the same rate as 2021.
Persistent supply-demand factors contribute to prices rising countrywide. Present house sales should increase by 6.6 percent.
Based on these predictions, we can’t be further away from a market crash in 2022. The year would experience the second-highest sales in the last 15 years. However, it won’t outrank 2021!
The inventory won’t be a spectacular one. The number of homes listed and available on the market will increase by 0.3 percent. Besides, single-family housing will increase by five percent. Then, the thirty-year fixed mortgage rate would average 3.3 percent for most of the year before climbing to somewhere between 3.6 and four percent by the end of the year.
Interesting data is that analysts expect the Hispanic minority to purchase more homes. Hispanic house purchasers already make up a noticeable segment of the market, more than ten percent of the total recent home buyers. They expect this number to grow in 2022.
Will the US market crash? - An optimistic closure on the housing market in 2022
Virtually, there’s no “real estate scientist” on this globe who can foresee the housing market’s future with a hundred percent certainty. The fellow agents and analysts at the abovementioned associations are no exception from the rule. Two crucial real estate predictions for 2022 will prove accurate, though. On the one hand, the US market will not crash and goes on experiencing its heydays.
On the other hand, unfortunately, the house prices in the United States will not drop in 2022! And what is more, recent estimates anticipated that property values would rise further this year and on.
As indicated before, we don’t hope for a buyer’s market, although the housing market will be more balanced in 2022. The supply won’t be higher than the demand. Instead, prepare yourself for more housing options, less “excitement” accompanied by prices slowly increasing.
The year’s first quarter will likely see an actual charge to buy properties before mortgage rates climb. Analysts agree that the early surge in demand will reduce the number of available properties. A much-needed rise in new buildings will improve sales modestly in the second part of the year.
Trendy cities for the housing market in 2022
Real estate predictions for 2022 state that mortgage rates would climb to 3.6 percent by December 2022. As a result, the surge in property values will slow down. Analysts anticipate the number of homes on the market to stretch to 2018’s high of 7.6 million, thanks to a minor increase in newly constructed homes.
Due to rising housing costs in cities such as Austin, Atlanta, and Phoenix, experts expect that purchasers would shift away from the Sun Belt and toward more cheap Rust Belt towns. For instance, Grand Rapids, MI, Madison, WI, Columbus OH, Cincinnati, OH, and Indianapolis, IN.
Are you interested in frontrunner cities in terms of the highest real estate sales in 2022? Certainly, Covid reshaped the popular relocation trends in the US. Specialists expect the following US cities to be the nationwide leaders: Huntsville, AL, Fayetteville, AR, Spartanburg, SC, etc. And ask the local real estate agents in Knoxville TN, or the local realtors in Pensacola FL, whether they expect a boost in home sales in their region! Their answer will surely be affirmative!
Buying a property isn’t an investment for them but a practical decision. Interest rates are on buyers’ side right now, but prices are high. Still, should a newlywed couple continue to rent or move in with their parents and halt their life plans? If they have the financial stability, need, and desire to buy their first home, they shouldn’t try to time the purchase perfectly based on what’s happening in the market. Anything can happen, and nothing is certain. Even if the factors we mentioned above sway the market towards buyers for 2022, that does not mean something unpredictable can’t occur and send the market in complete disarray.
We should have learned something from 2008, and we did? Today’s market is ordained in such a way that it has an added level of security. But is it 100% safe? No, just like nothing else is. Let us know in the comments below what you think we can expect from the 2022 housing market. Like & Share this article with anyone who might be interested in next year’s real estate market.